Last year at this time I published my 2013 predictions here, before dealing with next year I want to do a recap of this year, for accuracy. Overall, last year I made predictions that were not that imaginative or hard to make – I didn’t go out on a limb as I had tended to do in the past, but on the other hand, most of these predictions could be true or false, depending how you word them and want to look at situations.
In the Social Analytics Sphere I said that….
- Foursquare was going to be acquired this year. That sale didn’t happen (yet) and has rebounded somewhat over the last month, but the eventual sale seems more likely to occur in 2014. [WRONG]
- Microsoft or Facebook will by Yahoo. That sale didn’t happen either, and Yahoo! seems stronger than it has been for a while as 2013 closes because of Marissa Mayer. It’s hard to say what will happen with Yahoo! but I was wrong on this one. [WRONG]
- Software API access wars that were happening last year have continued, as far as I can tell. True, PeopleBrowsr won it’s war with Twitter, at least for now in April, but a few months ago the PeopleBrowsr/Kred CEO jumped ship and landed at IBM. With the sale of Topsy to Apple earlier this month the Social Analytics space continues to shift.[CORRECT]
- The various Marketing Clouds (Oracle/Salesforce/Adobe/IBM, etc) would fail - I think that I was correct in my overall prediction though the clouds haven’t really “failed”, they just haven’t delivered that much, yet. For one thing, many of the original employees of Radian6 have been terminated as Salesforce continues to buy up companies that have largely redundant functions. As far as Oracle, Salesforce and Adobe are concerned, being large enough to be on the top of the food chain, more or less, marks them as “whales serving to other whales”. I don’t really know what exactly will happen in this space, but at the same time, I haven’t heard anything that would lead me to change my opinion of them, either. My view that the “whales” would get so “bloated” feeding off the companies they bought that by the time they could integrate the offerings, many customers would have “moved on”. I still believe that. [MAYBE]
In the Marketing PR Sphere – I said that …
- Marcom will continue to streamline on Analytics – and I have no reason to think that’s not happening – but on the balance, it’s largely irrelevant from where I sit on the issue today. [CORRECT]
- Marketing Analytics will improve through the inclusion of Big Data - that’s pretty much happening and there are several articles to support this including this one (subscription may be required).[CORRECT]
In the Data Sphere I had a hit and a miss.
- Medical Big Data is continuing to evolve rapidly [CORRECT] but a company I cited last year as a shining example of it, 23andme – came under attack by the Government (FDA) over the last month or so [WRONG]. I think we should only talk about generalities with Medical Big Data, as the particulars are not resolved enough to make any clear, accurate predictions – that’s my feeling.
Predictions about the Art Sphere
- As far as they go, I think all the predictions I made were correct esp with the Democratization of Art but as the year progressed I saw the issues of Art turn more into Data [CORRECT]. So if I had to call it today, it’s not so much that Art is becoming Democratized as that Art is beginning to share the same need for Data as the sciences – I saw as much at the Art of Placemaking conference I spoke at last month in Providence, RI.
- The “Redefinition of Art” I spoke about last year is happening as Artists are becoming more concerned with The Data [CORRECT] and as a result, are merging with other fields. The focus on “Design” that I was thinking of early this year, spurred by a brief chance meeting with John Maeda in a Whole Foods supermarket on January 2nd, is leaving RISD for Silicon Valley.
But what does that tell you? Products we buy that are designed well tend to purchased a lot more, particularly phones, headsets and music devices, along with other mobile devices – but it doesn’t stop there. There has been a merging of Design, Art and Science (particularly with DATA, this year) but nothing I predicted was hard to foresee.
I hope this year, I’ll go more out on a limb more – hope to get 2014 predictions up by next week.