Thinking about the Buzz I’m reading this morning on the possible AOL-YAHOO merger (yes, I am writing on my IPhone and don’t have great spell checking, over active auto-suggestion and no ability to copy an paste a hyperlink, plus limited tagging. Otherwise, I can post what ever I want via my IPhone and now just leave my laptop home, as did today, while at SMX East).

I think a AOLYOO makes more sense, to me, than a MicroHoo, and here’s why. Both are “media” companies and can expand, the culture of both are similar, the business goals, as far as I understand them, complement each other.

Let’s hear more, but I am predisposed to like this deal.

I guess this puts a dent into Microsoft's acquisition of Yahoo .. just a mistake though -but fun, when, according to TechCrunch - Yahoo “Refunds” Disappointed Search Advertiser $9 Billion. Now, That’s Customer Service!

Ha, ha, too bad its not true….

Despite the decent first quarter earnings it announced yesterday and all the progress it claims to be making in closing the search marketing gap with Google, Yahoo still has plenty of advertisers unsatisfied with the return Yahoo gives them on their search marketing dollars. One of them (name redacted) sent us the correspondence below from Yahoo Search Marketing, which he received after closing an account and requesting a refund of the remaining $375 balance."

I guess someone at Yahoo! must have been operating on automatic since they wrote the customer with this reply to an inquiry:

From: Yahoo! Search Marketing
Date: Thu, Apr 17, 2008 at 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: Case #1604XXXXX
To: XXXXX@gmail.com

Apr 17 2008 09:36 PT

Hello AXXXX,

As you requested, we have completed refunding $8,962,385,800 to your VISA ending in 7134. Depending on your bank, you should find this refund reflected on your next credit card statement.

This transaction is also reflected in the Billing Transaction Detail Report, available in the Reports section of your account. You can find this report by doing the following:

1. Log into your account at the following link: https://login12.marketingsolutions.yahoo.com/adui/signinXXXXXX.
2. Click the Reports tab.
3. In the Financial Reports area, click Billing Transaction Detail.

Sincerely,

XXXXX Smith
Customer Solutions
Yahoo! Search Marketing

 

 Darn, why can't that card be mine?

While it was predicted that Yahoo would have a layoff this month and yesterday I wrote Yahoo expects at least 1000 layoffs today (which happened.. exactly as I wrote it) the bigger story is not so much the layoffs, which after all were expected, but Jerry Yang's leadership, according to Adotas.  Jerry Yang has not turned out to be the same kind of "turn around leader/founder" as Steve Jobs has been for Apple.

"…Many industry insiders have been questioning the effectiveness of Yang and if he’s really the guy to get the job done at Yahoo. This is the eighth straight quarter Yahoo has experienced slowing profits and the three years of declining sales rates.

Since Yang came back on board at Yahoo, they have acquired Right Media, Blue Lithium and invested heavily into the world of mobile, and yet, executives have dropped like flies. Mr. Yang does not by nature come across as an extremely confident leader, but does have the years of experience that even the Google team would envy. At the Right Media Open conference in back in October Yang stated that “I do not see Yahoo as a troubled company, if you step outside of Silicon Valley and evaluate the impact of Yahoo it’s very successful and performing well.”

My sense the Internet environment has changed so much since the mid 90's that just being a founder does not translate to reviving a company.  I think someone who exudes confidence and vision is clearly felt by the onlookers - it's hard to lead a company up, out of a slump without really having it - founder or not.  

According to a report in Bloggers Blog - Recession 2008 has hit Search Engines with a post on Yahoo cutting 1500-2000 jobs within the next two weeks.  My experience - any time you hear a rumor of job cuts, 99% of the time, there's good deal of truth in it.

And it's not hard to see why Yahoo is cutting jobs - I already wrote about Search Engines start layoffs - small now - are signs of much more, ahead a few days ago.  A reader of my blog quickly commented that

"….It's probably a little soon to suggest a trend of layoffs because 30 yahoo emps lost their jobs."

I wonder that person is going to say now?  

Here's more from the Bloggers Blog post on Yahoo cutting 1500-2000 jobs within the next two weeks:

"…. A tipster believes Yahoo has created a list of 1,500-2,500 jobs that may be eliminated in the next two weeks. CEO Jerry Yang will reportedly make the decision to go forward with these layoffs–or not–next week. Jerry reportedly wants to announce the cuts with or before earnings (January 29th), but may not make them if the stock price recovers."

Well, if the Yahoo layoff decision is based on a favorable Yahoo stock price - forget it - pretty much every-one's stock is in the dumps except those companies that are doing well globally, like IBM, but that's not saying much about the US operations - and I would not put it past IBM to lay off a bunch of US and Canadian employees and contractors just because they happen to live in an unprofitable economic system in the North American Continent - economics is a cold business - you have to be blue blooded, cold.  Glad I'm not in that business.

 "…If the economy continues to tank this year then there will likely be many more layoffs at various tech companies to come this year. Those who saw the fallout after 2000 have been through this before. The companies with the highest burn rates are often the first to cut jobs."

Well, what do you think is going to happen this year?  Rapid technology growth? 

Heard that Yahoo bought BuzzTracker from Marketing Pilgrim.   I looked at BuzzTracker last year and looking at it today, it seems to have improved quite a bit from when I last looked.

I guess the sources of Buzz are hand picked and maybe, where they got creative, is the way the information is merged and chosen.   I find the acquisition more interesting in that Yahoo felt it needed BuzzTracker - I'm not that impressed with the BuzzTracker platform itself.

Yahoo Facebook - to be or not to be - I've seen a couple of references to a potential Merger/Acquisition brought up over the last 24 hours including one from Deep Jive Interests.

Last year Mashable and BusineessWeek said Yahoo was in talks to buy Facebook for 1 Billion Dollars - Yahoo-Facebook for $1 Billion? and said then:

"…There have been Facebook acquisition rumors before, of course - back in March, the company reportedly turned down a $750 million acquisition offer, deciding to hold out for $2 billion (although the facts were sketchy). With MySpace seeming like a steal at $580M (although many still debate this), $1 billion is high but not astronomical. Facebook isn’t as large as MySpace, of course - at last check, they had 9 million or so users against MySpace’s 100 million plus. But with plans to open up the site beyond colleges and companies, there’s certainly room for growth. It could, of course, come to nothing: the Bebo-BT acquisition offer ($552 million) was never confirmed, and there have been subsequent rumors of a Bebo acquisition by Viacom. "

And that was almost a year ago!  Fast forward to August 2nd when the New York Times came out and said Yahoo should buy Facebook in Should Yahoo Try Again for Facebook? 

"..But an analyst at Bear Stearns suggests that Yahoo is also being left behind by sites such as MySpace, Facebook and LinkedIn — and said that an acquisition could be a good way to catch up."

"…Based on some fairly rough assumptions — Facebook, as a private company, doesn’t disclose financial figures — Mr. Peck said Facebook could be worth between $5 billion and $6 billion to a potential buyer.

He uses various methods to come up with a price, but one is based on Facebook having a projected EBITDA of $108.7 million in 2008 and a price-earnings multiple of 45 (not far from what Microsoft paid for aQuantive or Google paid for Doubleclick in deals earlier this year). By that math, Facebook would be valued at $4.9 billion.

Yahoo doesn’t have that kind of cash — it reported $2.3 billion in cash and marketable securities in its latest quarterly filing — but with a market capitalization of more than $30 billion, it has ample stock it could use as currency."

I'm going to take a position on this question.   I think Yahoo should buy Facebook for 2.5 Billion dollars - I don't think it's worth 5 Billion but I would say that the acquisition makes sense to my way of thinking.

"…Facebook’s recent success could make it even more desirable to Yahoo — but more unattainable as well. Responding to rampant speculation about whether Facebook might be for sale, one of its investors recently told The Deal that a deal seemed highly unlikely, in part because because potential suitors weren’t offering anything near what Facebook considers a fair price.

What’s fair to Facebook? Peter Thiel, a Facebook director and early backer, told The Deal that the company could get $7 billion to $10 billion in a sale.

That may sound expensive in the extreme. But it is worth noting that, barely a year ago, Yahoo’s $1 billion offer seemed pricey as well."

Here's the thing .. no one in their right mind will pay 7 - 10 Billion Dollars for a Social Network that could, on the face of it, disappear in a  year or two if it's not managed right  - or something else better in Social Networking comes along.

But at 2.5 billion or even 3 billion, I could see a sale like this making sense - and offers a lot of possibilities of merging much of Yahoo's other properties and it's marketing intelligence into the mix - something Facebook probably can't do alone.

I think the acquisition of Facebook by Yahoo is probably a good thing if they can do it at "fair" price.

Yahoo's Acquisition Gossip suggests Yahoo! maybe aquired soon, perhaps sooner than we think - and that will, somewhat, change the Search Picture, again.

"..The buzz on the tech street is that while Yahoo has made some smart acquisitions recently, like the great people over at Right Media, that Yahoo is up for grabs as well.   

This has been rumor for a while now…  I have heard speculation that it could be acquired by MSN and or SONY…  I think the entertainment/media angle would be smart.  But word from inside of a mega media conglomerate say otherwise.  Right now Yahoo is in serious negotiations with a leading global entertainment content company, who has a lock up on youth television, motion pictures and a wide range of digital media."

Could she spell it out more clearly?  How many companies like that are there?

"..I have two inside sources who have told me that their parent company is looking to benefit from Yahoo’s digital distribution backbone.  Stay tuned…  I will reveal the company's name soon."

Time Warner?   OK, makes sense.  How many companies can afford to buy Yahoo who are Global Entertainment Companies?  

We'll see what turns up in the news in the next two or three weeks, likely if this is a real story and not just another piece of gossip to drive the stock prices of Yahoo! up for the third quarter results.

When we look back at 2007 the biggest story, technology wise, will probably be iPhone Review but … a story almost as significant will go almost unnoticed - a leapfrog effort by Yahoo! Advertising to create truly online customized ads based on behavioral targeting …… happened almost as the same moment, according to a story in the New York Times.

"…The product, Yahoo SmartAds, would help marketers create custom advertisements on the fly, using information on individual buyers and information on real prices and availability from the vendors. For example, a person who had recently searched for information about blenders might see an ad from Target that gives the prices for the blenders that are on the shelves in the store closest to that person’s home."

"…The technology will also be applied for free across advertisements bought on Right Media, the online ad exchange that Yahoo purchased this spring (although the deal is still pending). The new feature may give Right Media a competitive advantage over other exchanges — like a new one created by DoubleClick, the online company that Google agreed to purchase for $3.1 billion in April. (The Google-DoubleClick merger is pending an antitrust review by the Federal Trade Commission).

Having a job at Right Media before they got bought by Yahoo! would be a smart move - anyone there is going to do well, from the sounds of it.  Second, web advertising is going though another stage were we're moving away from purely textual, keyword based targeting to behavioral and demographic (geodemographic) profiling and that has profound implications for Google as it may not share the same level of advantage that it has over Organic and Paid Search today.

"…“This fills a need that some advertisers have needed for a while — applying personalization to display ads, so they work like search and listing ads,” Mr. Kenny said. “Yahoo has a real advantage in SmartAds because of the data from their big and engaged audience, the combination of deep display and improving search capabilities, and the new changes to work with us at the technology level instead of just selling inventory.”

SearchEngineLand mentions another fact about SmartAds -

"…Microsoft currently offers geographic, demographic and behavioral targeting, but the "creative assembly platform" component of Yahoo SmartAds is unique. Google offers various targeting options, though not behavioral targeting currently. However, through search personalization and other efforts, it can reasonably be expected that Google will eventually introduce some form of behavioral targeting"

I'm sure Google will pull something out of Google Labs soon, but the question is now… will Google remain the leader here?  Perhaps not.

Still, it might not be till Fall that anyone besides a couple of big Airlines will be able to use Yahoo SmartAds.    I think some of the sites I have as clients, particularly the house plans, Architects would benefit from this kind of advertising … mainly because we've done the research on who buys, what demographic, but we had no good way to really target outside of Microsoft AdCenter - which hasn't got much marketshare as of yet.

Another thing we're seeing is the easiest service to use, the easiest, clearest and fastest interface, is the winner - over and over again.  For Search Engines, Google had that for the last 10 years.  No matter what anyone threw up, Google could do it faster and cheaper and usually, better.

As time goes on, it becomes harder to stay ahead, partly due to the it's size, Google is maturing as corporation, perhaps morphing in a Microsoft (one of these days … who knows?) and as that happens, it can't react quite as quickly or turn on a dime, like it did before.   In this case, Yahoo SmartAds might have the superior interface (for now) and Google may not be able to put something up that's just as good.   We'll see.

More rumors of a merger between Yahoo and EBay - probably similar kind of stuff to last month's Microsoft-Yahoo rumors.

"…Tim Poulus submits: I believe all the turmoil around Yahoo! (YHOO) following CEO Terry Semel's resignation fortifies the case for a merger with eBay (EBAY), which I defended before.

I heard about the Yahoo EBay possible merger from John Battelle.

I've been reading about this for the last day but had not focused on a purported story (first saw it on BuzzMachine) that:

"…News Corp would sell/merge MySpace into Yahoo for 25 percent of the company while Yahoo — now Myhoo — would outsource its search business to Google, probably making more in search than it could on its own. (More from this Times and that Times.)

This could be a brilliantly cagey move even for brilliantly cagey Murdoch, for it gives him an at-least 20x return on his MySpace investment in only two years ($580 million for MySpace now bringing in more than $10 billion in Yahoo equity) and gets him out of managing MySpace, which could be tough as Facebook gains speed. (Murdoch also becomes the rescuer — depending on your perspective — of old-media companies from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — Dow Jones and Yahoo both being old-media. But note that he was still too smart to buy newspaper empire Tribune Company; that’s just too old.)"

Jeff Jarvis put the odds of this Yahoo stock swap happening at next to 0%:

"..The odds of this happening: about 0.1 percent. News Corp. could be nimble enough to pull it off. But Yahoo is, witness the peanut-butter manifesto, just too large and lumbering and, well, old, at 14 years of age, to move decisively. But that was fun to contemplate anyway."

But I would not be surprised if something like this would happen…it seems in Murdoch's character - just a hunch.