Posted by Marshall Sponder on December 29, 2011 | Link It
Last week I did a webinar with The Recorded Future – here’s the Recording of that Webinar! Would love to hear your thoughts on how the Recorded Future can work for you.
The blog post at the Recorded Future blog containing more speaking notes and my presentation (which was in a recent post here, as well) is here.
I have to admit, of all the webinars I’ve given, so far, I like this one, in terms of the information shared and my own part in it, the best.
There’s also a lot more information about the Recorded Future that has been published recently including a New York Times article in the Bits blog and in John Battelle’s blog. Little did I know the actual headquarters of the Recorded Future are located in Scandinavia – just a stone throws away from, I suppose, from Norway, where I’ve often visited for Integrasco.com.
Also, in an email I received a few days ago, there are a number of Recorded Future views that give us a window into 2012 from CEO and Co-founder, Christopher Ahlberg:
*Partnering up with others*
We’re not alone in this anymore. We work with a great group of partners – in technology, content, distribution, and implementation.
You’ll soon hear us announcing this group in a concerted fashion. *So what’s in 2012?* What is happening in 2012? Everybody wants us to do majestic projections – but how about this:
- Looking for biotech action in the options market? Here are a whole range of opportunities in 2012 where biotech/pharma companies are in the<goog_285705746> FDA/PDUFA decision cycle <https://www.recordedfuture.com/rf/s/DhP7VO>
I also want to note that all of the Recorded Future views are democratic in nature – anyone who goes to these links I’ve shared, above, can see the whole picture – all three panes of Recorded Future – holding true to a point about RF, that they’re in it to share the Worlds Data (the Future Data, that is, though the platform actually works well with Past Data, as it applies the same way of organizing information to all events, regardless of when they occurred).
Posted by Marshall Sponder on December 21, 2011 | Link It
I was part of a Recorded Future Webinar today – here’s the SlideShare of my part of the presentation – which comprised the last 30 minutes; i discussed the talking points of the webinar in my last post.
A Cambridge, Mass., company called Recorded Future, which is funded by both Google and the CIA, claims to use its “temporal analytics engine” to predict future events and activities by companies and individual people.
The article makes a prediction about predictions ….
Recorded Future is only one of many new approaches to predictive analytics expected to emerge over the next year or two. The ability to crunch data to predict future outcomes will be used increasingly to estimate traffic jams, public unrest, and stock performance. But it will also be used to predict the behavior of employees.
And Google has figured out how to tell when someone is ready to quit Google.
Google revealed last year, for example, that it is developing a search algorithm that can accurately predict which of its employees are most likely to quit. It’s based on a predictive analysis of things like employee reviews and salary histories. They simply turn the software loose on personnel records, then the system spits out a list of the people who are probably going to resign soon. (I’m imagining the results laser-etched on colored wooden balls.)
I have full access to the platform and here’s a review.
Recorded Future tries to answer a question in terms of “Who, What and Where” and leaves you to figure out “Why” and since the event is in the Future (it monitors future expected events based on current and past trends) the platform tries to predict what is likely to happen in the Future (in a time window you specify). If it can, Recorded Future will predict likely outcomes, as mentioned above Google and the CIA have invested in this platform which I did not know when I first spoke with Chris Holden at Recorded Future.
For the “What” part of your query you have several segments already set up (currently you can’t make your own segments but Recorded Future can make one for you, if you really it want it bad enough). You can choose from Capital Markets, M&A, Accounting & Restructuring, Guidance and Ratings (financial), Entertainment Industry, Corporate Growth, Patents, Persons, Products, Legal, Disasters, Pharmaceuticals, Crime & Violence and Government & Politics. In each category segment there are several sub-segments that allow for honing in.
Let’s select Entertainment with a sub category of Movie Release.
The next question Recorded Future asks of you is “Who do you want to know about” or “Where do want to know about” and that is a field you just fill in. For example, if I want to know the upcoming releases and movies of a certain movie star, say, Angelina Jolie, Recorded Future will try to predict what they will be based on what it already knows, which is different than what other types of search engines do (they are based on past and present).
Let’s select Angelina Jolie. If Recorded Future has a record on Angelina Jolie your set (you can choose a few options from among those it finds. If you do a search on a person Recorded Future doesn’t know about yet, it may start collecting information on that person and you may not get much back from your query when you first execute it in Recorded Future.
The final question is When is going to happen, What time period is this going to cover. When I entered “Next” I could specify next day, next week, next month, next year, and so on. I selected over the Next Year.
The query didn’t find anything on Angelina Jolie for the next 12 months (hard to believe) but it does allow us to set up a query to look for those events in the future and email you when it finds something.
Next I asked Recorded Future to find out anything about Legal issues with Tiger Woods that happens anytime in the Future (using the same three drop-down boxes) and now we get something, except it doesn’t look like, at least on the surface, to be anything about Tiger Woods that we expected to find.
I’ll need to check back with Recorded Future to understand how I could choose “Legal”- General Topic, Tiger Woods (the person) – I could have also chose his Foundation, etc, and the Future was the next months, but it looks like what I got was anything but Tiger Woods – you tell me.
I created a network graph and it has very nice visualizations you can hone in on and expand but I still find we need to understand the language of platform like this to effectively use it (probably trial and error on my part as I did not get what I expected of the bat – but that doesn’t mean I can’t, it just takes a little more work on my part to figure out how to ask Recorded Future more of what I want to know in a way it can understand and answer back to me in the expected format).
I’ll write a future post on Recorded Future when I can get it answer a question the way I expected it to.
Upon reflection, The Recorded Future is a Query Engine that you ask questions to, it will then go and retrieve the data over time (about future drug announcements, future legal issues, future appearances, as a series of alerts. Once the data is collected, it can be charted as I’ve shown above, so to be fair to Recorded Future, I should go back in a few days and look at what it collected about Tiger Woods or Angelina Jolie.
Marshall Sponder is an independent Web Analytics and SEO/SEM specialist working in the field of market research, social media, networking and PR. He provides digital data convergence generating ROI and develops data metrics, KPI’s and dashboards that drive businesses by setting, evaluating benchmarks and teaches Analytics at UCI Extension and Social Media for The Arts at Rutgers University.