While walking to work this morning I thought about news of the last day; that we’ve been in a Recession since December 2007 (one year!), that several of my friends have already lost their jobs, that rents and other fixed expenses continue to rise, but income is falling and the economy,as a whole, is moving toward Deflation.

My mind races to paint a picture of what we’re likely to see next year and what I came up with, is this.

Economy continues to go deeper into recession as Barack Obama takes office in January 2009; the first stimulus package is passed by early Feb and the first money for stimulus flows out of the Tresuary in late April 2009. Unfortunately, the stimulus is too late to help the unemployed and nothing much happens.

A second stimulus happens in late 2009, but 2009 is already a wash out, and it’s not till spring of 2010 that employment starts to grow again, and not till 2011, before it recovers to a pre recession level. I think a third stimulus will happen in early 2010, and that will seal the recovery.

In all, about 2 Trillion Dollars will be spent over the next two years, trying to revive the economy, and that had nothing to do with stimulus going on in other countries at the same time.

I expect the usual challenges that everyone is talking about, but the problem is going to be, how to survive through 2010.

And the problem is that there’s going to be a lot of difficulty around “uncertainity” in when the economy will recover.

Maybe, the best thing Obama can do, at this point, for the economy is bring a sense of certainity back to the markets and to provide as many alternative energy jobs as he can create.

Of course, this is all my own views (no one else’s) and I may be all wet.

We’ll see.

Btw, this post was written on my iPhone, expect the usual spelling and grammar errors.

Reflecting on events this week that I attended; a dinner in Chinatown Monday night where I met Jeremy Wright of B5 Media and Missy Ward of Affiliate Summit fame.

And then, I met the same people, and more, last night, at Mashable’s Motivational Meetup (Gary Vaynerchuk Videos from Motivational Meetup - 11-5-05) - Gary Vaynerchuk, who’s event footage is now up on this site and CenterNetworks (Allen Stern).

Spoke to Jeremy Wright last night about the penalty Google imposed on most Know More Media blogs, including Webmetricsguru.com, before I bought it off the defunct KMM Network.

The traffic today isn’t terrible, between 200 to 300 visits a day, about the same as when I bought the domain with Sebastian Wenzel for our BlogSpeedWay.com network.

But I haven’t been able to get back to the 1000-20,000 visits a day I used to get, before last January, when the penalty was applied.

Jeremy mentioned he had success with a few KMM blogs he bought, using Google Webmaster Console, which turns out to be another name for Google Webmaster tools.

3 inclusion requests after cleaning up the blog, and no real response from Google, via the tool.

But here’s the thing … A conversation is usually 2 ways, and fully Duplex, meaning you make a request, you get a direct reply.

That’s also Web 2.0 and how this last Presidential Election was won by Barack Obama with a brilliant Social Media Strategy that acknowledged his followers and made them (us) feel heard and acknowledged.

Why doesn’t Google not hear and acknowledge me, not by sending me more automated bots via Webmaster Central, but answering my reconsideration requests with a human voice and face, so that I know I was heard.

Lately I’ve been on rants with companies that sell you on ideas they enable, but don’t actually embody, themselves.

Last month I mentioned ComScore, who sells expensive intelligence to corporations who want to spy on each other (competitive intelligence) running metering software that none of those same corporations will allow to run on their own networks due to privacy policies - pathetic, but true. No wonder the numbers are so far off from the same webstats, when available.

Then last week, Radian6, did, more or less, the same thing, and I wrote about it. It was cleared up when Radian6 talked back, had a conversation with me.

And now, Google,the most successful Web 2.0 Company if them all.

Wha!

Google doesn’t want 2 way conversations, they just tell the rules, something happens and your in the Gulog, they throw the key away.

Here’s my point, and I haven’t even gotten to gotten to Gary’s rant with Howard Stern, today - why can’t Google start having 2 way conversations?

Why won’t Google acknowledge me or my reconsideration request, so that I know my concerns were addressed?

Just a thought, but you’d think, by now, Google would be acting Web 2.0 by just talking to me.

And it’s not like Matt Cutts is easy to reach, these days.

I don’t know, the wholething is frustrating, and, as usual, people who talk the talk, often don’t walk the walk.

Note: I wrote this post on the subway while heading towards DUMBO, Brooklyn, for an Art Opening.  I am finding, I can compose and post my work while commuting, and even, while walking, and my last post was done entirely while walking to work this morning.

Of course, I don’t recommend doing that kind of writing all the time, but feel good that it’s there for me, when I want it.

Search and the US President election - Wow! A lot of search and political campaign strategists are on the panel.

Motivations in getting involved in search and politics are varied but unlike other business it never shuts off and your in it to win.

There is no budget and there is a lag in knowledge in running campaigns for search and current spending is only 40-60 million in this election, and that is a drop in the bucket of all spend.

Also, the lady from Yahoo said there hasn’t been many or any studies on campaign effectiveness and paid search. But you need to communicate directly with the campaign manager and to a lesser effect, the canditates, need to understand the utility of paid search marketing and political campaigns.

Long Tail approach (misspell Sarah Palin’s name in every way possible).

Duh! Candidates don’t seem to understand geo-targeting and micro-targeting! They understand TV and Radio and media markets, but seldom do they yet understand the precision avaiable.

McCain’s campaign is very active in gel-targeting and Eric Frenchman, who runs McCain’s online search advertising, said so.

What I don’t hear is micro targeting on the actual DISTRICT level, or anything with RSS feeds.

Interestingly, just as I wrote this, a question came up about bundling to the District level, did come up and Google and Yahoo, while they allow custom maps of Geo-Targeting, don’t actually facilitate that level of targeting.

And nothing about RSS feeds and Twitter integration on the local district level. It’s amazing to me how much of modern technology is not being utilized.

Amazing how campaigns use speeches of Biden (in the case of McCain) to a negative landing page on the candidate.

Also, Google and Yahoo haven’t yet offered geo-targeting on District Level but….. They are not, as yet willing to set up that specific a level if targeting yet, but are studying doing so in the future.

For some candidates, easing fund online is easier than others, and some times they can’t spend it all, so managing expectations is necessary.

Online Persuasion.

Do you need to be a true believer in the candidate and party ideology to work for a campaign as a search strategist for them.

However, now, there are many online digital strategists are on both sides.

Social Media and Search with political campaigns. Blog or not? Tracy Russo says no, not enough worth while content. I disagree. And Obama had people who were hired to write to the blogs, etc.

However, the community forming around a blog often continues after a campaign is over, win or lose, and, honestly, not fostering and nuturing that is foolish, I believe.

The idea that there is not much worthwhile to say is lunacy.

Twitter? Again, not as used as much as you’d think, by candidates. Amazing how much is being left, on the table, so to speak.

But, then again, I’m more of a visionary than anyone on the panel, or, for that matter, in the room, judging from the questions from the audience.

Facebook, what works? Buying admin rights for a group, Dan Steele, from Comedy Central.

Interestingly, the question of what kind of participation exists on November 5th, after the election, came up. It seems to me a new “channel” is being created via online media, Paid Search, FaceBook, Twitter, and targeted Blogs, along.

Justine Lam, worked for Ron Paul, and talked about all if that, and how it took a life of it’s own.

What tools used for monitoring Online Buzz?

Google Trends, Google Alerts, but many of the online tools are not useful, yet, to campaign strategists, yet.

Yahoo, Diane Rinalado, says Yahoo Buzz was sited as being better than Google Trends, and HotTrends, but not as highly used.

I brought up a few observations that I voiced including:

1. Increase links shown for embedded videos in Yahoo to include the long tail.

2. Data collected for Buzz Tools need to be refreshed hourly, not days or months later, as Goigle Trends and Yahoo Buzz often are.

Media Buys, as Eric Frenchman said, need to be decided in a few hours. You can see the gap.

Which campaign is doing better online?

Don Steele, Comedy Central, says he’s surprised media companies aren’t better at this yet.

Excellent Panel.

An interesting post from Jeff Jarvis today about The rise of the third estate and the need for Social Media participation and, by extension, Social Media Measurment- though what we have now, is still poor and ill suited for what’s required, moving forward.  According to Jeff Jarvis:

“…. No one’s in charge. I didn’t think that’d be worse than having the bozos we had in charge. But it is.

You’d think the one thing our politicians would be competent at is politics. But they couldn’t even count votes.

We knew the White House was a vacuum. Congress is a vacuum. Wall Street is lie. Detroit and the era it represents is dust. Journalism is sinking like a wet witch.

Who’s in charge? It’s falling to us, the people. We’re in charge. Problem is, we’re not ready. We’ve used the internet so far to organize some knowledge and yell at each other. We are just beginning to create the tools to organize ourselves. If only the meltdown of every authority structure could have waited a few years. Then again, necessity is the mother of organization. New structures don’t replace old structures while they’re still in place. New structures fill voids. And, boy, do we have some voids to fill.

We’re not ready, but then again, sometimes circumstances makes the person - maybe it’s time.   Now, I’m not really for or against the $700 Billion Dollar Bailout (see Bush Urges Congress to Pass Bailout in today’s New York Times) but I noticed how many people on Facebook mobalized to send the Congress representatives mesages against the bailout.

And Paul Krugman, more than anyone else, has been able to explain the $700 Billion Dollar Bailout like Where will the money come from and interestingly, in an analysis very similar to what Web Analysts produce for Traffic and Attribution, Krugman published this chart yesterday in a post on Politics of crisis

Again, I digress from Web Analytics, to talk about current events outside Analytics - but which Analytics could be applied to.

I am happy to see that Conseratives and Liberals, Right and Left, Republicans and Democrats, - no one likes the $700 Billion Bailout Plan proposed by the Bush Administration - even though everyone agrees on some type of radical action needs to be taken now.

Paul Krugman’s Cash for Trash OPED in today’s New York Times displays an understanding of the current financial situation and his ability to simplify it into 4 steps (almost like the 4 stomachs of Cows); by being able to conceptualize this Wall Street Meltdown into a series of steps with sequences he’s displaying the best skills of a Web Analyst - the ability to take complex information and synthesize it into a working model.

I believe, making sense of the data, what Paul Krugman does, is the one fundamental skill all Web Analysts need - the ability to use synthesis to take a complex situation and derive insight into it.

Even if you don’t agree with Paul Krugman the $700 Billion Bailout Plan if too flawed to pass in anywhere near it’s current form, at least you can get a sense of understanding, of empowerment even, by reading his OPED on Cash for Trash.

Here’s Paul Krugman’s 4 step analytics summary of current dire economic predicament the United States is in; Krugman thinks instead of bailing out Wall Street firms at step 4, with no accountability, we should be giving them more liquidity at step 2, in return for part ownership.

I just want to point out, again, the importance of forming a “working model” of a situation from which you can then preform analysis - if you can not conceptualize a problem, then any solution (ie: Secretary of the Treasury Paulson’s solutions, for example) are little better than throwing darts at the dart board (problem), and in the dark.

” … So let’s try to think this through for ourselves. I have a four-step view of the financial crisis:

1. The bursting of the housing bubble has led to a surge in defaults and foreclosures, which in turn has led to a plunge in the prices of mortgage-backed securities — assets whose value ultimately comes from mortgage payments.

2. These financial losses have left many financial institutions with too little capital — too few assets compared with their debt. This problem is especially severe because everyone took on so much debt during the bubble years.

3. Because financial institutions have too little capital relative to their debt, they haven’t been able or willing to provide the credit the economy needs.

4. Financial institutions have been trying to pay down their debt by selling assets, including those mortgage-backed securities, but this drives asset prices down and makes their financial position even worse. This vicious circle is what some call the “paradox of deleveraging.”

“….. The logic of the crisis seems to call for an intervention, not at step 4, but at step 2: the financial system needs more capital. And if the government is going to provide capital to financial firms, it should get what people who provide capital are entitled to — a share in ownership, so that all the gains if the rescue plan works don’t go to the people who made the mess in the first place.”

And, even arch conservative William Kristol does not like the Bush Administration’s $700 Billion financial Bailout Plan, and most conservatives don’t like it either - for much the same reasons that Krugman does not like it - it’s bailing out the wrong people and has no oversight previsions, making the Treasury Secretary too much power.  William Kristol writes in his New York Times OPED:

“… I’ve been shocked by the number of (mostly conservative) experts I’ve spoken with who aren’t at all confident that the Bush administration has even the basics right — or who think that the plan, though it looks simple on paper, will prove to be a nightmare in practice.”

Of course, Kristol wonder’s if Barack Obama or John McCain have the courage and exhibit the political will to oppose the $700 Billion Bailout Plan with the upcoming Presidential Election around the corner - what if, by opposing the $700 Billion Financial Bailout Plan the economy gets even worse, perhaps going into a deep recession, or even … a depression, then the electorate will blame what ever candidate voted against it.

On the other hand, were Barack or McCain back the current $700 Billion Bailout Plan and it fails quickly, blood would be on their hands, as well - and it could change the outcome of the election.

Using the Analytics approach I mentioned earlier in this post, the synthesis of information into a working model, so that you can then come up with insight and wisdom - the $700 Billion Bailout Plan looks too much like Authorization plan the Bush Administration floated just before it went to War with Iraq - the pressure to quickly “act” and vote - seems to be a familiar tactic that is used by this administration, to force people to act, often out of fear, against their own best interests - because they don’t realize, with the rush to act, what interests are actually being compromised.

We do need to do something quickly - but not that quickly - perhaps not even before the upcoming election .

We should, I think, work towards a solution and try to contain the damage on Wall Street and in the Global Financial Markets, but without giving the Treasury Secretary a blank check to do whatever he wants.

I also enjoyed reading Roger Cohen’s  Fleecing America in the New York Times OPED section tonight - Cohen brings another perspective - that United States is no longer the predominant Economic Super Power and that, primarily, under the Bush Administration, the bulk of what was once our Wealth, has moved off shore, to China, Russia and India. .. and the joke is on us - though Krugman was warning about this day for the last 5 years, last I counted - and the joke is on us - all of us - now that reality is setting in.

Not only that, but he somehow brings in sales for the disgusting artwork of Damien Hirst - the guy who puts dead large Sharks in formaldehyde, just like this one at the Metropolitan Museum of Art; here’s part of a story about this artwork in Time Magazine in a story tiled “A Shark’s Tale”

Damien Hirst’s pickled shark, formally known as The Physical Impossibility of Death in the Mind of Someone Living, has been presented as a three year loan by its owner, the hedge fund billionaire Steven A. Cohen, to no less a grand lady than the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York.

And to think, this is the same Met whose trustees used to be touchy —granted, it was long ago — about admitting Picassos into the collection.”

In case you missed it, the age of America as the dominant financial power - gone.  Read this (you can agree with it, or not, but even if you don’t agree - then come up with something better to explain what’s going on):

“…. It’s that the Hirst bull market in the midst of the most convulsive week for financial markets since 1929 says something important about the global economy and America’s declining place in it. In case you missed it, Hirst sold 223 works last week for just over $200 million, well above Sotheby’s pre-auction estimate.

Oliver Barker, the auctioneer, identified the Russians as major buyers. Sotheby’s took a preview of the sale to New Delhi, where it received a number of pre-auction bids. Jose Mugrabi, a New York dealer, told my colleague Carol Vogel that Hirst is a “global artist” who can defy “local economies.”

For local, read American.

Anyway, a post script. In his piece for Bloomberg News that I’ve linked to above, Martin Gayford notes that the same Damien Hirst is asking 50 million pounds — $100 million — for his new diamond encrusted skull.

Sounds like the “diamond encrusted skull” of Damien Hirst won’t be sold to anyone around here - unless Treasury Secretary Paulson has his way and gets his and G.W. Bush’s  $700 Billion Bailout Plan approved by Congress - then maybe, maybe, some Wall Street Bank or Financial Instituion will have the money to throw at Damien Hirst and buy the diamond encrusted skull - and put it next to “The Bull” on Wall Street (Nah, maybe Goldman Sach’s will buy it with TaxPayer’s money and display the skull in their lobby.

But seriously, just about everyone thinks the $700 Billion Wall Street Bailout Plan is too flawed to pass in it’s current form.  Hopefully, the pressure to “do something now” will not be successfully exploited, as it has in the past, to stick us all with a bill we don’t want or, for a fact, need.

And while I’m at it - I said the other day I would provide an “influencer” list from Radian6 surrounding the the $700 Billion Bailout Plan - here it is.

And here’s a link to the entire file - knock yourself out - but note the Huffington Post seems to be on top of almost any political story, including this one.  Could it be the Huffington Post is “more influential” for this discussion on $700 Billion Dollar Bailout than the New York Times?  Beats me.

Finally, here’s a series of Topic Clouds from Radian6 on the $700 Billion Dollar Financial Bailout and how it varies by media:

Blogs only:

Blogs tend to focus on discussing the government “plan” to buy the distressed securities while letting the Financial Institutions that got us into this mess, off the hook.

Online Videos Only -

Online Videos focus more on the size of the Bailout - based on the Topic Cloud Meta-data:

Main Stream Media -

Twitter - Micro Media

Interestingly, the Topic Cloud for Twitter is much more useful than the others, from my point of view as it contains some of the TinyURL’s that are being shared online over the last day.  I think, and maybe Radian6 needs to figure out a way to do this - a way to work URLs into the Topic Clouds are needed, in general.

At least, here they happen, with Twitter, due to the nature of the content and the size of a micro post.

For example, the stories that are being talked about in Twitter are “Bush administration wants $700 billion for Wall St. bailout” with the “size” of the bailout being most notable - also the use of slang missing from the other Topic Clouds shown.

Forums

Well, that’s about it for this long, long post.

I expect Monday and Tuesday to be filled with a lot more turmoil as Congress and Online News Media take a closer look at the the $700 Billion Bailout Plan - but I hope we just don’t find ourselves back in 2003, when Bush called the shots and we ended up going into Iraq due to faulty information.

I wanted to write about this earlier but my thoughts on this subject were subtle and eluded me - I was distracted by a lot of other stuff going on today and didn’t find the time - till now - and then, I had a problem capturing the right phases, so I could bring the idea into my mind and examine it.

My point really is - we need a influx of money to  rebuild this country - but what could we now invest in since we can’t really do it with real estate anymore - where can we generate a lot more money coming into the United States?

Just a thought - and again, I haven’t expressed this very well - I just thought … hey, what if someone could take out an option on someone else’s future performance, it would be speculation - but not much different than the futures market now - just an investment in ourselves, intangible, in a way.

Anyone have a better way to express what I’m trying to say?  if we can bet on the future of the stock market, of any market, what about betting on the future of what someone else does?  (I can imagine the object of what is being bet on can’t about the details or it would alter the results - maybe that’s why it’s OK to do options trading on oil, and not on how someone will perform in the future).

But let’s say, for the sake of argument, that such a bet was possible - that would be a way to generate the kind of money that used to be put into real estate before the bubble burst last year.

This is a hard idea for me to express - I’m not even sure I’m using the right termonology.

Looking at Paul Krugman's blog post about Oil Outlook reminds me about something I've been wanting to write about here for a while - most of the time I put these observations into The Analytics Guru - but my work is more widely read here than there (for now).

Part of me enjoys seeing the stock prices go down - at least, I understand what motivates that - the Sub Prime Mortgage Meltdown is in full swing and banks are writing off a lot of debt ( New York Times has two comprehensive articles on the current and future economic situation today Uncomfortable Answers to Questions on the Economy and Graphic on How Bad Could Things Get? that tell us most of the pain is ahead of us - and when I see the stock market go down - at least, the world seems to make sense - and I like reading Paul Krugman because he seems to understand the essence of the financial situation better than anyone - and I trust him and have been reading his OP-ED for several years –his estimation on Oil Prices is helpful in forecasting that the prices aren't going to meaningfully change - even if our demand for Oil goes down - which is must because the United States is running on Empty - we're running out of gas and we are running out of the ability to buy more - credit is tighter and tighter.

But then I see the Dow going up, as it did on Friday, and I wonder if anything in the Financial Sector really makes any sense, any longer - if it ever did - not that I'm a financial analyst (I'm not) - I'm a Web Analyst.

But why are stocks going up so much just because oil is 10 dollars cheaper today than yesterday (because we're broke and can't fly as much and or fill up our cars) - nothing much has fundamentally changed - we're still in an awful situation that's getting worse, and will continue to degrade.

So why does the market go up?   What is really mean to see a couple of hundred points more?  Nothing - it's meaningless - I've concluded.  

You can't judge the health of this economy by most of the stats that are currently be collected and shown us - that is what I fundamentally believe - we're looking for answers in the wrong place.

The answer is not in the Dow / S&P or anything else we see in papers - I'm not even sure what the metrics should be ….. but these aren't it.

Because the situation keeps getting worse and if you just looked at this chart - you'd see some confidence coming back - but it's all being driven by OIL PRICES.  Nothing has fundamentally changed ….. it's garbage info that leads to misleading conclusions useful if your into stocks, but not otherwise.

What the chart does tell - and knowing all of the change that happened this week was driven by lower consumption of OIL is that prices will drop for a short time, but not much and then any kind of conflagrations in the Mideast (I predicted an October Surprise (see Using Radian6 to predict the Presidential Election - Part 2) - I very much expect one to happen) and any kind of weather disruption or terrorist attack on a oil refinery will drive the prices right back up again, even worse than before.

The fact that OIL PRICES are driving the economy and not anything else, much - is the real story here - the world is addicted to OIL - we need it for everything - there's no way out - no stability that's possible, long term, because the price of OIL will change on any kind of news of a problem in the supply chain, and that can happen in several ways.

So I see no real confidence in the numbers … and no real story here - except we're on our way down, and we only think
it got better for a couple of days - till the next crisis drives prices even higher.

But here's how it ties into Web Analytics - I've noticed data I pull for my corporate work, at times, tell a very two dimensional story - one that often is not the story that should be told - but the metrics we are asked to pull (and I say .. all of us) are asked to pull - OFTEN DON'T TELL THE REAL STORY.

We need to come up with more stuff than Unique Visitors from Panel Data - or traffic volume data that is almost meaningless - just like this garbage stock data that is being fed us - it's meaningless - fundamentals haven't changed - the rise in the Dow just confirmed our addiction to OIL … it's actually worse - because now we realize just how dependent the world economy is on the price of OIL - and how easy it is disrupt it.

We should not be happy the Dow went up this week - we should be sad that the only thing driving anything up now is OIL PRICES declining - the rest of the economy is in the gutter - and going down fast.

What we need is New Metrics - that tell a better story - and lets face it - there's a bunch of good stuff our current metrics, both financial and web analytics don't catch at all.

We need to focus on that more - let the Dow go up or down - it means nothing if all that is driving it is OIL PRICES.

In fact, closing out this long post - when I worked at IBM.com, last year I was asked to provide metrics showing the success / or not, of the new website re-design.

It turned out, most of the effects were invisible - the metrics didn't even capture them - no hooks were put into the AJAX and FLASH in most cases and most of what we measured showed us that little had fundamentally changed.  

The lesson - similar to what I wrote  at TAG -

I think I just figured out where the Future of Marketing is going

is Metrics baked into the beginning of anything - we need to look for ways to hook up what is meaningful and measure that - not use some overblown statistic that is no longer that meaningful, like the Dow.

At least, that's my opinion - and I have to add, I'm not a Financial Analyst, I'm a Web Analyst.

Noticed a post by Paul Krugman on Big 5 crises and the United States that contain charts much like the one's Web Analysts often are asked to create.  It sorta reminds me that Web Analytics and Economics aren't really that far apart, it's just a different set of data - the insights and conclusions of top Economic Analysts and top Web Analysts, looking at sets of data - really come from a similar mind set.

Anyway, if you want to read more about this check out Big 5 crises and the U.S. - charts remind me of Web Analytics and if your really into reading the originally source for the economic predictions laid out in the charts, read a paper co-authored by Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, titled Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?.  

BTW, the conclusion of the paper says:

“..Given the severity of most crisis indicators in the run-up to its 2007 financial crisis, the United States should consider itself quite fortunate if its downturn ends up being a relatively short and mild one.”

 Sobering, isn't it?

In a sign that Search Engines are not immune to Recession, Wired reports Yahoo Report Could Disappoint, Analysts Say Layoffs Likely:

"…"I expect [the company] to announce close to 1,000 layoffs. I can't tell you where [Yahoo] will cut from, but I can tell you what they're not going to touch: Mail, Instant Messenger, Yahoo Finance, Flickr and Del.icio.us," says Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry. "I think Yahoo, like eBay, is fatigued. They've got to get rid of the things that aren't working anymore. They're on a long journey, it could be another two to three years of turnaround."

That may not be Yahoo's only piece of bad news. The company is also expected to provide an update on its deal with AT&T, which is supposed to be renegotiated this spring. Under the current agreement, Yahoo receives fees per subscriber for providing premium web-based services to AT&T's broadband subscriber base. It's not clear how the talks are going, but Youssef Squali, an analyst with Jefferies & Co., thinks the company could lose $200 million to $250 million in access fees under a new agreement."

I wrote about possible Yahoo layoffs earlier this month and it seems inevitable now - I guess we'll find out how many employees are actually going to be fired later today - my guess is 800, let's see what's actually announced. 

My feeling it that we're in a Recession and actually have been since last fall - and that findings will be readjusted to reflect this in a couple of months - but….. Are we in a recession? asks Robert Scoble, as he hangs out in hotel lobbies in Davos and asks the Global Elite what they think.

And it sounds like it depends on who you talk to weather we're in a recession or not.  I suppose you could say that the question of weather a Recession exists is really separate from weather you are personally touched by it or not.

My feeling is the Global Elite, the more socially conscious of who's at Davos, do think we're in a Recession, but there are many Corporates that will prosper regardless of what the economic system does - and for them, there is no Recession.  Robert Scoble goes on to say:

"…I spoke with Steve Forbes last night (yes, that Steve Forbes) and he thinks that the doom and gloomers shouldn’t be listened to. He sees one quarter of bad news and then sees the economy coming back in the second quarter.

I forget his name, but a senior partner at Accel Venture Partners told me while we were waiting for a bus together that he’s watching the sales and other data from 250 startups reporting to Accel and he sees nothing but growth and is very optimistic. That optimism has been shared among the VC’s I’ve run into this week.

Google execs are upbeat and are hiring and so are many other companies. Start ups continue getting funded. Facebook’s executives tell me they are continuing to hire and expand at a rapid pace.

On the other hand, the sub prime problems are very real. I know a couple of people who are getting kicked out of their homes because they couldn’t afford to keep up with payments. Now, you can blame these people, but one of these families has an autistic child and so the mom can’t work. That wasn’t something they planned on, but they are getting evicted nonetheless and this is in Silicon Valley in Saratoga, a pretty rich community. Certainly real estate values are under pressure, in some communities in San Joaguin Valley in California housing prices are seeing huge drops (I’ve heard stories of homes being sold for $350,000 in neighborhoods where prices were $600,000 two years ago).

So, are we in a recession? Or are things going to roar ahead in 2008?"

The answer is Yes, we are, in my opinion, but it depends on who you are and where you sit weather if affects you or not.  

Let's make a few assumptions:

1. Economic Stimulus Package, generally perceived as being inadequate (see Analytics of a Economic Stimulus Package), won't kick in till late Summer in any appreciable way.

2. Many State and Local Budgets will be drastically cut - large layoffs will be coming up in the next 3-6 months.

3. Once the full extent of sub-prime Mortgage Backed Security investments by large backs, Corporations and Hedge Funds is fully out in the open, World Stock Markets will plunge and the Dow will settle at 8,000 by the end of the year.

4. The Presidential Election will be affected by the growing detonation of the US Economy - and the edge will point over to Clinton from Obama, because most will think Obama, for all his good intentions, does not have the experience or understanding to dig us out of this mess, that was created, after all, by someone else, George W. Bush, who had nor real experience either - and look where that got us. 

Just having someone who you'd rather have a drink with in Bar (isn't that how G.W.B was described as in 2000) over Al Gore, doesnt mean you should give them the keys to the family car.   The world is going to be in such a mess this year, I think experience is a factor - and real understanding of the World Economy is vital - and the persons running  who I think have that, on the Democratic side are Clinton and perhaps, Edwards - and on the Republican side - no one. 

No one -  in fact, they whole mess the world is in is mostly their fault - the Republicans.  Why anyone would even want to elect a Republican, I can't tell you - but unless they manage to jimmy rig the voting machines, like they are reported to have done in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 - and I doubt they can pull that one off again - I don't see how a Republican can be elected. 

I guess the other possibility where a Republican could possibly be reelected is if another 9/11 happens on our shore shortly before the November 08 Election - be it real or manufactured - and I would not put it past some to want to create such a situation. 

Let's hope that if such plans are in the works, that tactic won't succeed - but let's hope that if such a thing does happen, people will be much smarter and aware of how they're being manipulated, and won't fall for it enough to swing the election back over to the Republicans.

Most everyone who attended Davos won't really be too put out by a Dow at 8,000 - but I can tell you - a lot of people will be hurting, bad, and they won't be saying it's a Recession, they'll be calling it a Depression.

That's what I think.   In fact, for all we know, what happens this year might not even be called a Recession officially.

But one thing about Davos opinions about Recession show - just how polarized we've become - the trend actually started, as far as I can see, in the mid 1970's and has accelerated ever since.  

First we saw it in the Religious Fundamentalism that took over Egypt and got Anwar Sadat murdered - later it spread to the United States, with the Election of Ronald Reagan, who started the trend towards "haves and have-nots" - the country was put on a path of separating the lower class from the middle class , and a new upper class emerged that essentially has fully taken over.

The lower and middle classes have actually started to move back together - at least in this country, both aren't doing that well - while the upper class has become obscenely rich.   Those people could not care less if there is a Recession or not - in fact, it might make some of them even richer.

Fact of the matter is - whether this year has Recession in it for you or not depends largely on who you are and what you own - and if you lose your job or not. 

In fact, I'm going to throw in a one more thought here - I hope you read this far - the idea of who the Recession touches is actually affected by targeting and micro-segmentation. 

After all, since the 1980's we've been given, more and more, choices - as to what we consume, where we live, how we travel, how we communicate, what we study and how we study, and so on.

Why not turn that around and point it back to economic theory - might the Recession/Depression not be as Micro-Targeted as our own consumption habits? 

I guess that suggests that one way to alleviate a recession or depression is to use Micro-Targeting to reach out to the groups or segments that have been so affected.   While that might not have been possible in the past, the way our society and technology evolves now makes it possible to target stimulus much more accurately and effectively.

And that will bring into the forefront - Ethics - how do you decide who deserves to get stimulated, to get a targeted tax cut - or funds meant to prop them up.

Thinking about it - the problem that's created current ineffectual stimulus package is ideology - and almost 2/3 of the money is going to people that historically, don't spend it - they just pu
t it into a bank (upper and middle classes).

……Here’s what it looks like, by quintiles of the income distribution as I wrote about in Analytics of a Economic Stimulus Package:

 

Which suggests, the main benefit of the tax cuts will be banks …. which are hurting - but not as much as starving people who are losing their houses. 

Maybe that's why there's so much questioning about the Recession in Davos - look who's asking the questions.