Here’s the first group of predictions that I think may happen in 2009.  To the extent I can, I will site information that lead me to make the predictions.

1. The price of a Barrel of Oil will settle at $60.00 for most of 2009.

Posted last week on Downturns are Predictable – at least this one is (was) even as OPEC Looks to Halt Falling Oil Prices but cutting back on production by up to 2 million barrels a day.What I think we’ll see is Oil staying stable at 60 dollars per barrel.

2. 2009 is going to be a Bad Year for Starbucks and NetFlix

People who are downsized, and that’s more and more of us, see Starbucks and Netflix as luxuries – visits to Starbucks will be down by about 20% in 2009 – leading to more cutbacks in employees, benefits and stores.  Other chains that are more Fast Food may not be as affected, with reductions of ~6% ( See Silicon Alley post Laid-Off, But Not Laying Down: Part One)>

3. George W. Bush will be acknowledged as the worst president in this nations history

I don’t think this is a hard prediction to make -

W. has started with everything going for him -  came into power with a record Surplus and nothing much happening and managed to turn great circumstances into 9/11, Iraq, and a ton of scandals. meanwhile, Barack Obama, as the first Black man to inhabit the White House – inherited all this extra work to do – just to clean up the MESS he’s left with from the outgoing administration.

4. Deepening distrust of Wall Street and it’s reason for existing and functioning. (note: many of the financial changes will start in 2009,but not necessarily take place till a year or two later).

There’s already been a lot written over the last few weeks about The Madoff Economy along with the incredible greed and incompetence of Wall Street experts – as 2009 continues – more transparency into Wall Street will be demanded – however, this will be very difficult to enact.

In fact, it’s going to be unclear how anyone, who doesn’t already have a lot of money to invest, will generate any kind of reasonable profit through Wall Street and the American Dream, for the time being – at least, parts of it, are going into hibernation.  There will be no way to make a big profit for most people; we’ll more be looking just to make an average living -and  we’ll have to live with Life Without Bubbles for a while.

Besides, just take a look at the Bush Era Investment Strategy from Talking Points Memo:

…. the above chart of the last eight years shows that we have been living in a financial version of Bizarro World where up is down and smart is stupid.

Meanwhile - Bush’s Tax Break May Have Helped Cause Housing Bubble

5. in 2009 we’ll have a second wave of financial institutions fail as more loans reset. The entire financial system will be on life support and uncertainty will grow on how we’ll emerge from it -

Wrote Downturns are Predictable – at least this one is (was) and I posted this video from 60 Minutes about a second wave of Bank Defaults coming; last year and into 2008, Sub Prime Mortgages were resetting – and I’m told this is what set off the financial problem we’re having.  In fact, this is part of the reason, I bet, that Banks are holding most of the $700 Billion dollar bailout instead of loaning it out, as Banks usually do.

Due to the deteriorating Economy next year – Obama’s first, second and third stimulus packages will end up extending unemployment insurance and food stamps indefinitely, at least, for the next 2 to 3 years and the benefits for food stamps and unemployment will go up, somewhat.

Right now Universal Health Care hasn’t been formally proposed, as such, but UHC will be proposed as one additional way to stimulate the economy and make it easier to hire and maintain the workforce.

In addition, a number of proposals will be seriously examined where Americans reduce or eliminate their debt through public service programs and community activism; many of these will also provide stipends.

As a result, the Government will be

- paying mortgages for those who can’t.

- stop mortgage loans (see above) from resetting.

- propose the creation of a new currency to replace the ailing dollar.

-housing homeless familiesaround the country, starting in 2009

That’s about it – I know there will be more – and I’ll write about it and publish the information if and when I have more to share.

I’ll have my Web Analytics predictions published here, in a couple of days.