Been so busy with Internet Week activities in New York it's been hard to post - and - there's a lot to post about - if I could just remember it now - there were many thoughts I had over the three days that could be the subject of a post, save the time to post about it, which I didn't have.

Ok, today Hillary Clinton is "giving up" in her race for the US Presidency - Ending Her Bid, Clinton Backs Obama -I supported Hillary and it feels to me as Obama has an easy way into the White House come November, or does he?

I'm not sure he does.  Signs I'm seeing point to two conflicting realities - which one you buy into is up to you - I know that I feel both realities …. but I'm not sure which one will end up winning out.

There's the first reality - that Americans are so tired of George W. Bush and the Republicans, even a "monkey", if it was the democratic candidate, could win.  I know that's an over simplification - but in this reality, the one that I sense is hovering above us - the Republicans have been "dis-armed" and they are now, despite appearances, weaker than any point in the last 46 years - and the next election will prove that.   

There's also many new people that have been drawn into this election who want Barack Obama to win - and didn't feel too committed to Hillary Clinton - they just got involved wanted change - a total change.   Positions weren't looked at so much as image and personality (sounds familiar).

The other reality is highlighted by a post from John Evans, Obama and McCain - the real battle begins that essentially, claims that many people who are on the sidelines now will promote McCain because they're afraid of Obama and what he stands for (funny, I got photographed with "Obama Girl" last night at a Mashable Party last night in Mid Manhattan ).

I have to say, Obama Girl does look good, but does that mean, for all that people want Obama to win, that he will?

The other reality says that many people are going to vote for McCain because they understand who he is, and they don't understand Obama, and where he's going to take the country.

I spoke to one of my friends today who said he was going to vote for McCain, that Obama scares him.  

I, personally, don't have a problem with Barack Obama, but now that he's pretty much the candidate  I think we're going to be seeing a real roller-coaster effect for the next 4 or 5 months.

In this other reality - the one I speak, it's a much closer election - much closer - and the outcome isn't clear.  At least, a few, in the International Community, think it's going to be McCain.

And that seems really strange, from here.  How an a President and a Party, so unpopular, who have made so many mistakes, get re-elected?  And yet, it happens.  Who knows, maybe Obama is the perfect candidate to create that scenario - I don't know.

But I do know this - taking Hillary Clinton as a running mate has it's pros and cons and while I'd like to see her on the ticket - it's a dual edged sword - but if it were up to me …. a lot of people who are not going to vote for Obama, like my friend, and doing so anyway … while having Hillary Clinton on the ticket doesn't really alienate anyone who would have voted for him, gets him many people who aren't too sure about him - but also polarized people who are sitting on the fence and will stay Republican. Still, if would wish her to be on the the Vice Presidential candidate.

And, in a way, the race has now polarized with McCain being strengthened but recent developments (see the BlogPulse chart, above) and with over 2% of the Blogoshere traffic weighing in (too bad there's no sentiment analysis with BlogPulse)…. (I can't wait to use Radian6 and Buzzlogic - to test out more theories).

For one thing, I want to explore how these "two realities" are evolving over the next 4 or 5 months - I think they'd be a fascinating study.