Recession 2008 – here we come

Posted by Marshall Sponder on January 11, 2008 | Link It

Looks like more and more people are saying a recession this year is inevitable – with all that goes with it; among the latest list of those saying this is Adotas's article today on The Falling Knife

"…A general recession is on the horizon; it’s not a question of if, but when and how long. The last recession happened just briefly in 2001, but the job loss which resulted from it continued until 2003, and we have just now started to reach the level of employment we saw then. When this recession comes, people will lose their jobs, and as the professor commented but all too seriously, “People in this room will lose their jobs.” It will be painful but it is necessary to get the economy on the right track again."

 

And the housing crisis with the sub-prime mortgage meltdown really hasn't fully hit yet:

"…In the professor’s opinion, we are entering the worst housing depression in 50 yrs. It started only recently, and it will last for at least two years and as many as four. And, as Barry Ritholtz explained, you can analyze this housing market using the Kubler-Ross Five Stages of Grief, i.e. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance. In his opinion, we have barely made it to Stage 3. People think we’ve felt some of the impact, that it can be seen in the stocks, and all should be fine. We’ll know it’s time to buy when we hear people saying, “This stinks. I’m done with it.”

 It's not everyday you hear trade magazines forecasting news that generally will be considered negative – but today Adotas did (at least, the article writer did).

 







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