Comments on Predictions for 2008 by Steve Rubel

Posted by Marshall on December 25, 2007 | Link It

Ok, maybe I should do something similar to Steve Rubel in Charting 2007's Three Big Web 2.0 Trends with my own Web Predictions - I just covered predictions in these two posts A Survey of Predictions for 2008 - so far (I'll try to come our with some of my Web Predictions next week) and earlier in Predictions for 2008 and how I did with my 2007 Predictions but I didn't use Google Trends, or Blogpulse, or anything like that with broad categories.

So…I think I'll do that in the next few days - but before I do, I want to briefly comment on what Steve Rubel predicted:

"….Data: Searches for social networking and news volume both doubled in 2007. However, more recently, the volume has started to show some signs of weakness. Meanwhile, geographically, interest in social networking from India and Singapore is skyrocketing. Search volume for individual sites, like Facebook, appear to track the broader meme.

* Insight: Social networking is evolving from a group of sites into several competing platforms that power thousands of sites. Eventually, we won't think of social networks as sites but as a feature. This data might just be the first sign of such a progression."

Agreed.  Social Networks are quickly evolving and with some kind of Universal sign in, or ID, to import friendships, the particular Social Network might not matter as much as it does now.  For example, now, Going.com has a pretty exciting people recommendation engine built into it's Social Network - but what if, down the line, we all make our own Social Networks from bits and pieces we plug in - much as some generic PC's are built today.  Why not?    Why couldn't we just go to an integrator and ask them to build a Social Network from different applications that talk to each other - and we pay for that - or just build it ourselves.   I think that's the future but I don't know if it will materialize in 2008 - it might take longer.

Trend I: Social Networking

Microblogging - agreed also:
"…Micro blogging fosters connection with less work all while working well with mobile devices. Blogging remains important, however, as the traditional press rapidly embraced blogging, it has encouraged individual publishers to find new ways to spread their influence."
I've gotten more into Twitter, now that I see what it can do - I think more and more will be using similar platforms next year and blogs will be used for larger chunks of thoughts that take more time to compose.
Web Applications - well….no one knows what the definition of Web 2.0 is, exactly - though, I did define what I think Web 2.0 is the other day.  Here's what Steve Rubel thinks:
"…The search data seems to reflect what others have said - that web applications are not on most people's radar. This data is consistent with what Microsoft and Apple have said - people like their desktop apps. Web applications are in their infancy. It should be interesting to see if they will remain a niche category in the years ahead. The lack of the ubiquitous connectivity could be a major stumbling block."
And I think people will continue to not know what Web 2.0, Web 3.0 or Web 4.0 really means till we accept a definition similar to mine - services talking to each other interactively.



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