Well, this is my last post for 2007 and I'll say that … one that I wrote for My-Metrics.com yesterday, is for me, one of the best posts I did this year titled Been Busy.

Another thing i was able to do in 2007 was get elected to the Board of Directors of the Web Analytics Association and heading up the largest committee, Social Media, which is also a new committee.

And I'm also Leaving IBM, and it's time to move on to bigger and better things in 2008.

Also, I have traveled more this year than ever before, and while it's not been that much, compared to a lot of people who go to conferences and speak, it's a lot for me.  I see that trend accelerating in 2008, for that is.

Now, I guess it's time to get ready for the New Year. 

Was asked to come up with some 2008 Predictions for the Web earlier this month and now I'm going to do that:

Web Predictions for 2008 - 

1. As a result of content sharing between different Google Reader accounts AND the  ever increasing amount of RSS Feeds that we're reading - we'll find ourselves looking, again, to content aggregated or specialists, to take all of that data and make meaning out of it.   

But how much of that is going to happen in 2008?  I think we were seeing the beginnings of that two years ago with Yahoo's pages being able to be saved to a personal account - at that time is was suggested that some people my harvest the web in order to pick out the best stuff, and then offer it. 

Then Google Reader came along and did a much better job of gathering data, allowing it to be stored, allowing it to be read on mobile devices and allowing to be shared - and most of that happened in 2007.

Social Networks also, fully came on like this year - this was the year of Social Networks, of sharing information - and now that Google Reader is also allowing us to share what our "friends" marked and found interesting - there's a need to find ways to prune though it. 

Why?  If Robert Scoble can read though 800 feeds a day, and I read about 200 a day (and it takes me a hour of my time, reading through 200 feeds throughout the day …what happens when there's 10,000 feeds to read through.

Sure…. that's a way's away - but what if more and more people blog, write, express opinions, and while alot of it was duplicate stuff, a lot wasn't ….. at some point - your time is going to be the delimiting factor here - you can't consume this stuff 24 hours a day - so content aggregators, perhaps people with a special interest, or platforms that make it easier (like Techmeme) are going to become more powerful and more pervasive in 2008.

 

2. Virtual World Platforms such as Second Life will continue to become more popular in Europe and Asia, as opposed to the United States - where the growth has bottomed out for the time being.

3. In 2008 both the Google Phone and Google Social Network based around Search  will emerge.

- The Google Phone has long been rumored as a platform, not a product, but actual Google Phone, or versions of it, will be manufactured and mostly supported by mobile advertising - which will make the Google Phone very popular (as long as you can stand the Ads).  You'll also be allowed to have Ad Free service for a fee - payable to Google.

- The Google Social Network will be a merging of information being collected now from Google Search and Web History, along with Google Reader habits, Google Map, etc.   Because Google is collecting data on your activities via the Google Toolbar, and your Google Account - it's in the position to utilize information it's collecting more effectively - and I believe 2008 will be the year that this happens - that it all comes together.

3. The world of Search, in general, will continue to stagnate, with Google increasing it's Market Share while Yahoo and MSN continue to either shrink or Stand Still.   Ask, as number 4, will continue to innovate, but it won't make much difference.

4. Mobile Platforms will continue to become more powerful and more pervasive, and it will be possible, in late 2008, to entirely replace a laptop, with a mobile hybrid phone, PDA device - not clear who will be producing it - but my guess in Nokia - since they seem, overall, to produce the most powerful mobile phones.

In this area, the iPhone will continue to improve and gain market-share.

5. More and more areas of cities will have free wireless Internet - the trend has been moving along for the last three years and will accelerate in 2008.

6. The Writer's strike that has paralyzed a lot of network Television will be settled by April 2008, but there will be permanent damage due to the strike - as more alternative media, user generated, will be consumed than before, and people will be willing to view talk show hosts being totally unscripted.  Some shows will actually end up being unscripted.  Meanwhile, the writers will make out better than before, once this is all settled and they have some web revenue along with the writing revenue for television and cable.

7. Web Analytics will continue to grow as force in online advertising - as more businesses want metrics - 2008 might be the year where Web Analysts are given a SEAT AT THE TABLE.

OK, Economics - Politics:

1. While it's likely that the Democrats will take the White House in 2008, one can't rule out some surprise event that will change people's perceptions and change the outcome of the election from what we expect it to be, today.   It's kinda interesting to see how Giuliani and McCain would be in the prefect position - to take a situation that was "manipulated" and turn it as rallying point for a continuance of Republican Politics as usual.   Hopefully, if something like that is being planned, it will either fail, or we, as people will be intelligent enough to see though it and make the right decisions.  But only time will tell.  As far as I can see now, a Republican, any Republican, is unelectable.  

But you never know how things will change next year; there always seems to be some surprise, some unforeseen circumstance that works in favor of keeping these guys in power.

2. Next year is going to be a tough year, financially, for businesses, due to the Credit Crunch caused by Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown.  I can continue to see a weak dollar, going even lower in value - in fact, it maybe necessary for the dollar to be weak for a while - not only because of the way United States is viewed by the World, but the imports are what is keeping the country from sinking into a recession - and so, by that reasoning, the dollar must stay weak.

I don't know what else to say for 2008, as it's going to be here in a couple of hours - and I wish everyone a Happy New Years, and that 2008 be an even better year than 2007 for all my readers (including me). 

Just read Gary Angel's post on Resolving to have a Plan, where he writes :

To get an answer to a question – particularly a web analytics question, you almost always have to start with… the question!

Here's what I take away from his post (I reformatted Gary Angel's paragraph to break it up into separate thoughts that follow each other):

"….Unrealistic and nebulous expectations and a lack of defense against random ad hoc requests are both pretty bad consequences of not having a plan.

But the most serious consequence of not having a plan is that your analysts typically don’t know what to do either.

There are very few analysts who you could ever trust to conceive of an analytic project that is truly important and then execute on it.

The inability to do this doesn’t mean an analyst isn’t competent.

In fact, if an analyst can do this, they should probably be managing your business instead of analyzing it!

However, I'm  not sure coming up of with a list of projects and what needs to be measured works unless the projects are metrics enabled - just coming up with the plan might not be that helpful unless you can deliver the metrics and business intelligence that's being asked for and expected. 

Figured since a number of others are publishing their stats for 2007, I'd do mine:

Top Posts for 2007:

The posts I did on Vanessa Hudgens and Juanita Bynum were the most popular, along with the Cloverfield and Iron Man Trailer - and to the extent I injected Web Analytics into the content, I made those posts about Web Analytics as much as about Celebrity Buzz.

In the case of Juanita Bynum, I must have tapped into a "community" as I got well over 500 comments on my original post and it's the longest time spent, of any of my posts - which really implies that the meaning of Web Analaytics stats needs to applied against the communities being measured.

Here's a link to the Google Analytics Dashboard for Webmetricsguru.com in 2007 

Download file

There's actually a list of top Web Analytics Posts for 2007 - 18 most popular Web Analytics blog posts of 2007 - and three of my posts are on the list.

I also pulled Engagement Stats from Compete.com on 5 of the 6 blogs I could include - which show my blog to be the most "engaging" though my posts often mix in celebrities and Web Analytics - I doubt a pure Web Analytics blog could drive all that much "engagement" except to a certain "niche" audience.  I go for a large swath, which is why my engagement numbers are higher - if we trust this methodology.

But whatever Eric is doing… it must be working as his stats are the only one with real momentum - they're clearly going up in a steady fashion. 

"….Occam’s Razor
by Avinash Kaushik

1. I Got No Ecommerce. How Do I Measure Success?
2. Rethink Web Analytics: Introducing Web Analytics 2.0
3. Excellent Analytics Tip #10: How Thick is Your Head and How Long is Your Tail?

Web Analytics Demystified
by Eric T. Peterson

1. Damn you Steve Jobs, damn you, damn you, damn you
2. EXCLUSIVE Microsoft Gatineau presentation and screen shots
3. Is Google Analytics the Killer App? No.

Visual Revenue
by Dennis R. Mortensen

1. What and how to measure Social Networking websites
2. The Long Tail … and how to calculate missing Revenue
3. Tracking RSS subscribers via the IMG tag - a quick Web Analytics HACK

Web Analytics World
by Manoj Jasra

1. Ultimate Web Analytics Comparison Resources
2. 21 Reasons Why You Do NOT Need Web Analytics
3. Web Analytics Implementation: Items Overlooked

Increasing Your Website’s Conversion Rate
by Robbin Steif

1. Criticize Google Analytics. Win Prizes
2. How to Set Up the new GA Site Search
3. Answers to your Top 10 Google Analytics Questions

Web Metrics Guru
by Marshall Sponder

1. Cloverfield Trailer - JJ Abrams Buzz - Cloverfield Movie, updated (talks about tracking Viral Marketing using Web Analytics)
2. 1 18 08 Online and Google Analytics traffic stats on Cloverfield Movie Trailer
3. Locational Buzz using Google HotTrends - Donda West's passing

 

(BTW, I can't put in Web Analytics World since it's hosted on Blogger.com - it would just pick up the entire Blogger.com domain).

I had a huge traffic spike in September due, largely to the Vanessa post, but which I can't really maintain (no one can) due to Google's Blog Network page rank adjustments in October, while Lunametrics is steady. 

And Eric Peterson's blog gets the longest average visit, while mine, the shortest -   

But that's partly due the the high focus of WebAnalyticsDemystified.com; Lunametrics is also highly focused, my blog is probably a mixture of a Web Analytics and Celebrity Blog with a little Art mixed in - people who come to my site, if they didn't see what they wanted right away, often leave - that's just the way it is.

Also, WebAnalyticsdemystified and LunaMetrics produce the most pageviews per visit, with my blog being the lowest:

And attention, well, here's where my blog excels, because it's the only one, according to Compete.com that's actively continuing to grow audience outside Web Analytics - but I don't know how accurate the methodology is - though statistically, it's sound:

Here's Compete's description of Velocity:

"..Velocity reports the relative change in daily Attention. Velocity is used to determine the relative growth of a domain over a particular time frame or compared to other sites.

Velocity is an effective way to measure the impact of planned (or unplanned) events, such as new advertising campaigns, product/service launches or general site growth. Simply choose an event date as the starting point to see how it has affected a site's attention over time."

 

Earlier this year I wrote a post titled Micro Celebrity Online Identity Calculated and last July is was 8 out of 10 and now it's 9 out of 10.  But that's not the reason why I'm writing this post …. no, it's about a Wired post titled -Clive Thompson on the Age of Microcelebrity: Why Everyone's a Little Brad Pitt - found out about the Wired post from Smartmobs The Age of Microcelebrity by Gerrit Visser (I can post on Smartmobs but haven't had a chance in the last month or two - maybe today I'll post something there).  According to the Wired post:

 "….Micro-celebrity is the phenomenon of being extremely well known not to millions but to a small group — a thousand people, or maybe only a few dozen. As DIY media reach ever deeper into our lives, it's happening to more and more of us. Got a Facebook account? A whackload of pictures on Flickr? Odds are there are complete strangers who know about you — and maybe even talk about you."

Actually, I think Micro-celebrity is a good thing - it's the outgrowth of having so many connected people who are able to follow others, who are also connected, that it makes perfect sense you can now have a group of fans - pretty much anyone can - even people who'd you wouldn't think, normally, as having fans:

"…Whenever Peter Hirshberg is at a party, someone eventually pulls out a camera and takes a snapshot with him in it. Hirshberg — chair of the executive committee at the blog-search company Technorati — performs a quick mental calculation: Does the photographer look like one of those people who will immediately dash home and post all their candids to Flickr? "If I think it's going to end up on the Web, I straighten up more, try to smile the right way," Hirshberg says. "Because if it goes online, people I know will probably see it."

Hirshberg has a blog, which means a couple hundred people — some strangers, some friends — regularly follow his comings and goings, his Facebook updates, his online photo trail. Any time he does something embarrassing or stupid, those people will know. So in essence, Hirshberg has to behave like a very minor version of Brad Pitt. He's got to watch out for the paparazzi, be careful with his public image.

But he's not a celebrity. He's a microcelebrity."

 

I was surprised, in 2006 Emetrics Summit in DC, how many people in the Web Analytics community read Webmetricsguru.com…. I had no idea.   

But having said that, I think Social Networks like Facebook, enable more "Fandom" and in fact, now products and events are having "Fans".  I think the trend will only continue into 2088 and expand out. 

And while we're at it - why not have "action figures" made - I just posted about the one of Seth Godin Action figure - now I've seen it all….

"…

Actually, this is pretty cool…..

"I'm not kidding," says Mitch.

"It sounds too fantastic to be true," wrote Mark.

Yes, the Seth Godin Action Figure, with built-in Brandomatic® and PurplePower® is finally ready and you can be the first on your block to have one.

IMPRESS the Harvard MBA down the hall!
VANQUISH low-cost imports and cost-cutting impostors!
DOMINATE emerging markets!
FLOOD your site with web traffic!
DEMONSTRATE a sense of humor!

Not only that, it makes a great paperweight.

Seth closes out the post with this:

"….Need an idea? Rub my head.

And here's the best thing: It only costs $9. Which is like 30 cents for people with euros.

And an even better thing! All my proceeds, every penny, go to the Acumen Fund. Not suitable for children under three or for cynics.

Full disclosure: They only did me because David Sedaris turned them down and Steve Jobs, who occasionally has better judgment than me, wouldn't even consider the idea. Who's next? Michael Crichton is too tall (plastic costs too much), so I'm hoping for Malcolm Gladwell."

Gee… I wonder if there could be one made of a "Web MetricsGuru" and I could have super powers, and a "Web Dragon" behind me..and I'd be carrying measuing tape, magnifying glass, protractor, and I'd have a little search "engine" chained to my leg….and there'd be webbing all over me, esp between my arms and armpit (much like Spider Man, I guess - who could also sub as Web Celebrity…webbing and all)….. and then I could sell it on Facebook and off my blogs….  

Nah…. but it's an intersting idea and one wierd action figure. I got some "tweets" from Jeramiah Owyang…. seems he discovered the Seth Godin doll too…..

	jowyang Tally: 3 for scoble, one for Dave Winer, Blogher girls (elisa, lisa, jory), loren feldman, steve ballmer (what about steve jobs?) 42 minutes ago from web
	jowyang One of @guykawasaki should also be made, and who else? about 1 hour ago from web
	jowyang There's now an action figure of @sethgodin damn, this would have been a great stocking stuffer http://tinyurl.com/3aju7o about 1 hour ago from web

Hell, maybe in 2008 the way bloggers can monitize their blogging is by selling Action Figures - but of course, the Action Figures have to be interesting in the first. 

Gee, can I get one made for me…. how'd he do it?  There's actually a Seth Godin Action Figure …as mentioned in Hey kids! It's finally here… on Seth's blog.

I hope, in 2008 we have the capability (it probably exists already) for anyone to have an action of themselves, or some significant other,  made in lots of 100, 1000, etc.   Here's what Seth Godin wrote:

Actually, this is pretty cool…..

"I'm not kidding," says Mitch.

"It sounds too fantastic to be true," wrote Mark.

Yes, the Seth Godin Action Figure, with built-in Brandomatic® and PurplePower® is finally ready and you can be the first on your block to have one.

IMPRESS the Harvard MBA down the hall!
VANQUISH low-cost imports and cost-cutting impostors!
DOMINATE emerging markets!
FLOOD your site with web traffic!
DEMONSTRATE a sense of humor!

Not only that, it makes a great paperweight.

Seth closes out the post with this:

"….Need an idea? Rub my head.

And here's the best thing: It only costs $9. Which is like 30 cents for people with euros.

And an even better thing! All my proceeds, every penny, go to the Acumen Fund. Not suitable for children under three or for cynics.

Full disclosure: They only did me because David Sedaris turned them down and Steve Jobs, who occasionally has better judgment than me, wouldn't even consider the idea. Who's next? Michael Crichton is too tall (plastic costs too much), so I'm hoping for Malcolm Gladwell."

I did a painting tonight and it suddenly hit me that part of what I'm painting is the idea, the topology of a Social Network.   Is it the Social Network my Social Media Committee is building for the Web Analytics Association - perhaps, maybe the spirit of it - though I think it's more than that.

Here's the painting -  Maybe I'll also post it on my Facebook Network.

 

Interesting thread and charts that go with .  While I don't really follow all the ins and outs of the conversation going back and forth, and the post is a very long one, I found the charts pretty interesting - and having grown up through the  70's, 80's 90's - up till now - I can attest that much of what is being discussed - based on my own recollection, is correct - at least, as I perceive it.

The weird thing is how we've accepted a chart like this (below) as the status quo:

Steve Rubel wrote a interesting post about using the new enhancements in Google Reader to do Knowledge Management and Research titled Become a Knowledge Management Ninja with Google Reader.

While I haven't really used it that way, I could see where it could be useful for Social Media Standards research - much in the way he suggests and I'm going to look into using it that way.  Steve suggests subscribing to many, many feeds, not so much to read them all, but to data-mine them for keywords, which you can do now..

* The Core Philosophy: Google Reader is a database and a feed reader
* Continually add tons of feeds in organized, methodical way
* Establish a taxonomy that makes retrieval and sharing easy using on-the-fly tagging
* Annotate your data by connecting Reader to Gmail or Blogger
* Putting it all together - sorting, searching and sharing