Sobering Market Analytics Predictions – Paul Tudor Jones II

Posted by Marshall Sponder on October 13, 2007 | Link It

I write about a lot of things at Webmetricsguru.com, not all of them are strictly about Web Analytics, though I bet there's a component of this story in the New York Times today about The Man Who Won as Others Lost that could have a Web Analytics data overlay.

"…. The stock market is going to crash, and he knows it. “There will be some type of a decline, without a question, in the next 10, 20 months,” he says in his rich Memphis drawl. “And it will be earth-shaking; it will be saber-rattling.”

"….Except that the crash to which Mr. Jones refers occurred Oct. 19, 1987. His prognostication — brazen, and as impudent as the man himself — was made in a documentary called “Trader,” which was filmed in the year preceding that day.

Now, 20 years after the 508-point decline, several strategists are anticipating that the earth will shake again."

Most sobering of all is Paul Jones prediction on what comes next based on the Elliot Wave theory:

"…..Now, Mr. Prechter is suggesting that the country is facing not just a market crash, but also a depression. On every measure, he says, the market is more overvalued than it was in 1987 before the reversal. The price-to-book ratio of the S.&. P 500-stock index today is 4.04, compared with 1.73 in 1987. And measures of the bullishness of Wall Street traders confirm Mr. Prechter’s assessment of the overvaluation.

I have been writing about Sub Prime Mortgage issues quite a bit lately – and so all of that plays into this prediction by Paul Tutor Jones II, but what he says goes beyond what I've been writing which is why I mentioned it in the first place.



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