The Search Volume Seasonality Forcaster needs more work but it’s an interesting idea that I hope Microsoft makes fully functional.

I put in a term (i’m limited in what I can enter) like "fall wallpaper" I can see some interesting patterns.  It’s pretty clear that Fall Wallpaper is going to be in demand in the Fall months, yet what is interesting is the demand starts in July of each month, a full season before the actual peak time to sell that kind of wallpaper; the actual peak times for fall wallpaper are in September, dropping slightly in October and Novemeber.

If we look at Six Flags Great Adventure (below) we can also see the demand is greatest during the summer months.

six flags great adventure

But what’s intriquing is the demand really starts ramping up in February and March.

Again, we’d like to see the trending on any term, not just those that Microsoft has provided, but it’s proof of concept.  HitWise…watch out, these tools were to be part of your more exclusive offerings, but Microsoft is moving in and if I can get the data from them for free, I’m not going to fork over many thousands of dollars for your data.

Similarly, a seller of Pablo Picasso’s art (maybe his prints is more like it) would see this kind of seasonal demand

In all of the charts the red line is actual demand while the blue line is the forcasted demand.

pablo picasso

It would appear the summer months are actually the worse time to try to sell Pablo Picasso prints (I can’t imagine his auctioned paintings are being affected by these cycles).

The actual demand for Pablo Picassos (prints?) was lower than the forcasted demand, especially during the summer months.

Great stuff – still needs work but it’s the right direction.  Thank You again Microsoft for listening to what people want.

Watch out Google!  Microsoft is doing some serious stuff with it’s new demo of the Demographics Prediction Tool!  I feel Microsoft is in this to win, and if they keep this up, they will ultimately win over online marketers from Google and Yahoo.   Never mind the acccuracy of the results (that will come later) - just look at the concept and your staring into the future of search and online marketing.

Demographics Prediction
Predict a user’s demographic information such as age and gender based on online behavior (query searched or Web page viewed).
	URL:http://www.thehousedesigners.com   Gender: Female Oriented with following Confidence:
	:0.09   :0.91   Age: 25~34 Oriented with following distribution:

The Microsoft tool determined the main audinece of my client’s site, www.thehousedesigners.com was female!  That’s right!  However it also showed that they should be attracting more young people in the 25-24% than they are (predicted distribution was 60.72% while the tool says they’re only getting 27.2% of that demograhic).  On the other hand, the tool showes the probably get more of the 18-24 and 35-49 years of age demographic than on average.

How about a competitor like coolhouseplans.com?

URL:http://www.coolhouseplans.com   Gender: Female Oriented with following Confidence:

:0.23   :0.77   Age: 25~34 Oriented with following distribution:

Cool gets most of the 25-34 year old age braket and the 25-49 year old bracket, and the mixture is still mostly female, but males are much stronger part of the audince.

What about Eplans?

URL:http://www.eplans.com   Gender: Female Oriented with following Confidence:

:0.25   :0.75   Age: 25~34 Oriented with following distribution:

I hope my ideas, via the Tattoo presentations for Bullseyetattoos.com reached the MSN Lab in China – I sorta think they did because they’re begining to give me what I asked for – the tools to do the job of audience profiling.

Next step is usability – what about the site makes it appeal to one audience more than another?  Man, is this field of online marketing going to heat up!!!!!!

And it goes back to my earlier post today about Ad-Tech, SES and WMW, it’s time for a new wave of ideas because the current crop of speakers have matured, new blood, new ideas are needed, like this one.

And what about an actual query like "craftsman house plans"?  You can do that too.

Query :craftsman house plans   Gender: Female Oriented with following Confidence:

:0.36   :0.64   Age: 35~49 Oriented with following distribution:

URL:http://www.mascord.com/craftsman-home-plans.asp   Gender: Female Oriented with following Confidence:

:0.24   :0.76   Age: 25~34 Oriented with following distribution:

One of my clients sells Craftsman House Plans and he’s getting the right mix of audience but not the right ages!  According to this demo he needs to go after the 25-34 year old braket.  

Thank You Microsoft! Thank You Microsoft!  Thank You Microsoft for listening!

Thanks to Easton Ellsworth for the 10 Places to Find Reviews of Web 2.0 Tools and Services including one I’ve never heard of before called the Museum of Modern Betas .

The Museum of Modern Betas catches many new Web 2.0 fish small and large and serves their info up to you.  Another slick list is found at the Web 2.0 Awards site.  One more: Emily Chang’s eHub.

I’m always looking for new semantic mapping tools, anything to help me with search engine analysis and web page analysis.