I liked Read/WriteWeb's post on Using the Web to Predict the Next President: So Far, 50/50; Josh Catone provided thoughtful analysis merging Internet searches with voter demographics for each of the winners in Iowa.
According to Josh:
"...most of Obama's support came from the 17-44 age group, which made up 30% of Democratic caucus goers. In the 17-24 age bracket, which made up 17% of the total turnout, Obama won 57% of the vote. It's clear that Obama resonated with young voters in Iowa -- precisely the type of people who would be most likely to follow politics via the Internet. What's more, he (and the Democratic party) were able to motivate young voters to caucus."
"...Huckabee's numbers are more curious. He was outspent in Iowa (Mitt Romney -- who finished second -- spent $7 million on TV ads to Huckabee's $1.4 million), and though Huckabee saw a surge of Internet support in the past couple of months, the exit polling showed that young voters made up only a small fraction on the Republican side, where the large majority of caucus participants were over the age of 45.
The exit polls do point to a reason for Huckabee's run away victory, though: 60% of Republican voters identified themselves as "born-again or evangelical Christians," and 46% of those voted for Huckabee. Huckabee, who is an ordained Southern Baptist minister, is generally seen as a champion of the Christian right."
Huckabee's support, were it to depend on born again evangelical Christians would not play well in the North or West - therefore, I don't think he can win.
"...It seems likely, then, that Huckabee owes his Iowa victory to a grassroots support movement among evangelical Christians"
On the other hand Barack Obama concentrated on everyone under 44 years of age - according to Read/WriteWeb's analysis.
Comment Preview