I write about a lot of things at Webmetricsguru.com, not all of them are strictly about Web Analytics, though I bet there's a component of this story in the New York Times today about The Man Who Won as Others Lost that could have a Web Analytics data overlay.
".... The stock market is going to crash, and he knows it. “There will be some type of a decline, without a question, in the next 10, 20 months,” he says in his rich Memphis drawl. “And it will be earth-shaking; it will be saber-rattling.”
"....Except that the crash to which Mr. Jones refers occurred Oct. 19, 1987. His prognostication — brazen, and as impudent as the man himself — was made in a documentary called “Trader,” which was filmed in the year preceding that day.
Now, 20 years after the 508-point decline, several strategists are anticipating that the earth will shake again."
Most sobering of all is Paul Jones prediction on what comes next based on the Elliot Wave theory:
".....Now, Mr. Prechter is suggesting that the country is facing not just a market crash, but also a depression. On every measure, he says, the market is more overvalued than it was in 1987 before the reversal. The price-to-book ratio of the S.&. P 500-stock index today is 4.04, compared with 1.73 in 1987. And measures of the bullishness of Wall Street traders confirm Mr. Prechter’s assessment of the overvaluation.
I have been writing about Sub Prime Mortgage issues quite a bit lately - and so all of that plays into this prediction by Paul Tutor Jones II, but what he says goes beyond what I've been writing which is why I mentioned it in the first place.
I guess it would also be worth pointing out that Robert Prechter continued to predict the great depression for the next 10 years after 1987, thereby missing one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Go back and take a look at his newsletter from the time.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 14, 2007 2:21 AM | Permalink to Comment