How do you know a candidiate or issue is popular (besides watching / reading the news or believing in a candidate / issue). The free tools - Alexaholic, Blogpulse, Google Trends, etc, can help some, but the categorizaton and precision needed to do accurate forcasting is not present in these free tools.
A press release from HitWise (which is not currently a blog post in the HitWise Blog) shows HitWise to be a very good political forcasting tool (the entire PR is in the "Read" more part of this post).
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US Market Share of Visits Among Custom Category of Political Candidate's Campaign Websites
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State
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Position
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Candidate
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Domain
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Market Share
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Connecticut - Senate
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Candidate
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Ned Lamont - D
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www.nedlamont.com
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65.92%
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Candidate
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Joe Lieberman - I
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www.joe2006.com
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34.08%
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New Jersey - Senate
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Incumbent
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Tom Kean - R
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www.tomkean.com
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85.60%
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Challenger
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Robert Menendez - D
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www.menendezfornewjersey.com
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14.40%
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Pennsylvania - Senate
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Challenger
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Bob Casey - R
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www.bobcasey.com
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51.00%
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Incumbent
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Rick Santorum - R
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www.ricksantorum.com
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49.00%
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Virginia - Senate
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Challenger
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Jim Webb - D
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www.webbforsenate.com
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58.66%
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Incumbent
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George Allen - R
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www.georgeallen.com
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41.34%
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Note - Data based on custom category for US market share of visits for the week ending September 16, 2006 from a sample of 10 million US Internet users
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Source: Hitwise
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Based on HitWise data I'd say, if the November Election were held today, Ned Lamont wins the Senete seat in Connecticut while Robert Menendez loses the Senete seat he is was appointed to after former Senetor and now Governor John Corzine appointed Menendez too.
If I were Bob Menendez, I'd be nervous over those numbers right now as he is either not doing enough to attract viewship and interest over the web or, he's turning off potential voters - I don't know which.
HitWise's much more accurate web traffic numbers show the race in Pennsylvania for the Senate seat is, unfortunately, much too close to call. With the Republican hit squad machine, it's entirely possible that Rick Santorum will skweak by for another term in spite of all the polls that say he's trailing. I think you will see a lot of money being spent in Pennsylvania both both parties to win / retain this senete seat.
My point being - you can't get this kind of information from any free tool - it's not going to happen. It does not mean that everyone needs to go out and get HitWise - they way too expensive for all but a select audience that needs the kind of precise data the HitWise can produce. But if your a politician - I'd have it, because it's worth knowing what kind of traffic each candidiate is getting at any point in time - as this traffic information, along with the Clairtas PRIZM overlay with Geo-Demographics, is more often a real indicator of how people are deciding to vote is cluster segment groups each candidate is going after.
Also, in the Virginia Senate race the Democrats are probably going to win it based on the data as it is now. I'd challenge HitWise to produce the entire spread for all the Senete and Congressional elections in Novemeber and forcast how many seats the will be won/lost by the Democrats. I'd like to see the detailed breakdown of each race, much like the chart above.
Let's try it and see if HitWise really does predict the elections; if it does predict the elections, a lot more politicans will buy HitWise and part of their political forcasting tools - mark my words. I'd also like to see HitWise give away something more than a nibble for a change.
HitWise Press Release
Shift in Political Issues Revealed By Hitwise Search Term Data
‘Huffington Post’ Top Search Term Overall in Politics Category for Past Week
NEW YORK, NY – September 22, 2006– Hitwise, the world's leading online competitive intelligence service, today announced that search term data for September 2006 (12 weeks ending 9/16/06) reveals how political issue have shifted compared to the same time period in September 2005 and September 2004. The search term ‘abortion’ was the most searched for political issue sending visits to the Hitwise Lifestyle – Politics category in the 12 weeks ending September 16, 2006. ‘Abortion’ received the largest volume of searches among political issue search terms for the same time period in 2005 and 2004.
The top political issue-related terms following ‘abortion’ for the 12 weeks ending September 12, 2006 were ‘military deaths in iraq’, ‘antiwar’ and ‘hezbollah’. This contrasts with ‘biodiesel’, ‘death penalty’ and ‘american flag’ for the 12 weeks ending September 17, 2005. For the 12 weeks ending September 18, 2004, the top political issue terms following ‘abortion’ were ‘american flag’, ‘homeland security’ and ‘gay marriage’.
The top search term overall for the Lifestyle - Politics category was 'huffington post' for the 12 weeks ending September 16. 2006. For the same period in 2005 the top term was ‘michael moore’ and in 2004 it was ‘john kerry’.
“Consumer Internet behavior provides great insight into the American public’s prioritization of political concerns,” said Bill Tancer, general manager of global research at Hitwise. “For example, the change in search terms resulting in traffic to the 841 sites that we monitor in our Lifestyle – Politics category is a great proxy for top-of-mind issues as we get close to November’s mid-term elections.”
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US Top Ten Political Issue Keywords Resulting In Visits to the Lifestyle - Politics Category
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September-2006
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September-2005
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September-2004
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12 weeks ending 9/16/06
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12 weeks ending 9/17/05
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12 weeks ending 9/18/04
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abortion
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abortion
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abortion
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military deaths iraq
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biodiesel
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american Flag
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antiwar
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death penalty
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homeland security
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hezbollah
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american flag
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gay marriage
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biodiesel
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iraq casualties
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death penalty
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death penalty
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peak oil
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antiwar
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american flag
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terrorism
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iraq
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illegal immigration
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unemployment
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global security
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unemployment
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gun control
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beheadings
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gun control
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war in iraq
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iraq casualties
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Note – Data based on volume of searches from Hitwise Search Intelligence™ from a sample of 10 million US Internet users
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Source: Hitwise
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Online Election Traffic
As the Internet plays a more prevalent role in the elections across the country, Hitwise has created custom categories of different candidates' websites for a few Senate races this election year. The table below shows the percentage of market share of visits to the respective candidates' websites compared against each other for the week ending September 16, 2006.
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US Market Share of Visits Among Custom Category of Political Candidate's Campaign Websites
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State
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Position
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Candidate
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Domain
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Market Share
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Connecticut - Senate
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Candidate
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Ned Lamont - D
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www.nedlamont.com
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65.92%
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Candidate
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Joe Lieberman - I
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www.joe2006.com
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34.08%
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New Jersey - Senate
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Incumbent
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Tom Kean - R
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www.tomkean.com
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85.60%
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Challenger
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Robert Menendez - D
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www.menendezfornewjersey.com
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14.40%
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Pennsylvania - Senate
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Challenger
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Bob Casey - R
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www.bobcasey.com
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51.00%
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Incumbent
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Rick Santorum - R
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www.ricksantorum.com
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49.00%
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Virginia - Senate
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Challenger
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Jim Webb - D
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www.webbforsenate.com
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58.66%
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Incumbent
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George Allen - R
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www.georgeallen.com
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41.34%
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Note - Data based on custom category for US market share of visits for the week ending September 16, 2006 from a sample of 10 million US Internet users
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Source: Hitwise
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About Hitwise
Hitwise is the leading online competitive intelligence service. Only Hitwise provides its 1,200 global clients with daily insights on how their customers interact with a broad range of competitive websites, and how their competitors use different tactics to attract online customers.
Since 1997, Hitwise has pioneered a unique, network-based approach to Internet measurement. Through relationships with ISPs around the world, Hitwise’s patented methodology captures the anonymous online usage, search, and conversion behavior of 25 million Internet users. This unprecedented volume of Internet usage data is seamlessly integrated into our easy to use, web-based service, designed to help marketers better plan, implement, and report on a range of online marketing programs.
Hitwise is a privately held company headquartered in New York City and operates in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Singapore. More information about Hitwise is available at www.hitwise.com.
For up to date analysis of online trends and statistics, please visit the Hitwise Intelligence Analyst Weblogs at weblogs.hitwise.com and the HitwiseDataCenter at www.hitwise.com/datacenter.
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